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Kelly Criterion Calculator
The Kelly criterion tells you exactly how much of your bankroll to stake on a value bet. Enter your estimated win probability, the decimal odds, and your bankroll to get instant results.
Suggested Stake
$140.91
14.09% × $1,000
What is the Kelly Criterion?
The Kelly criterion is a mathematical formula that determines the optimal size of a series of bets to maximize long-term wealth growth. It balances the tradeoff between betting too much (risking ruin) and too little (leaving profit on the table). Most professional bettors use a fractional Kelly (half or quarter) to reduce variance.
Formula: Kelly % = (p × (odds - 1) - q) / (odds - 1), where p = win probability and q = 1 - p.
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