Value Bet
Definition
A value bet occurs when the odds offered by a bookmaker are higher than the true probability of the outcome. Consistently finding and placing value bets is the foundation of profitable sports betting. The edge may be small per bet but compounds over a large sample.
Formula
Value exists when: Bookmaker Odds > (1 / True Probability)Example
Your model estimates a team has a 50% chance to win (fair odds 2.00). A bookmaker offers 2.20. Since 2.20 > 2.00, this is a value bet with a 10% edge.
Related Terms
Arbitrage (Sure Bet)
StrategyArbitrage betting (arbing) involves placing bets on all possible outcomes of an event across different bookmakers at odds that guarantee a profit regardless of the result. It exploits price discrepancies between books and is considered risk-free in theory.
Middles
StrategyA middle is a situation where you can bet both sides of a point spread or total at different bookmakers with overlapping ranges, creating a scenario where both bets can win. The downside is limited (you lose the vig on one side) while the upside can be substantial.
Sure Bet
StrategySure bet is another term for arbitrage — a combination of bets across different bookmakers that guarantees a profit regardless of the outcome. The term emphasizes the risk-free nature of the strategy, though in practice factors like bet limits, voided bets, and account restrictions introduce operational risk.
Edge
StrategyEdge is the percentage advantage a bettor has over the bookmaker on a given wager. It is calculated as the difference between the true probability of an outcome and the implied probability from the odds. A positive edge means the bet has positive expected value.
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