Implied Probability

Closing Line Value measures the difference between the odds at which you placed a bet and the final odds when the market closes. Consistently beating the closing line is widely regarded as the single best predictor of long-term profitability because closing odds reflect the most efficient market price after all information has been incorporated.

Expected Value is the average amount you can expect to win or lose per bet if the same wager were repeated many times. A positive EV (+EV) bet is one where the bookmaker's odds imply a lower probability than your estimated true probability, giving you a mathematical edge.

True probability is the estimated real likelihood of an outcome occurring, stripped of any bookmaker margin. It is derived from sharp market lines or statistical models and serves as the benchmark against which you measure value.

Market efficiency describes how accurately betting odds reflect the true probabilities of outcomes. Highly efficient markets (e.g., NFL totals at Pinnacle close) leave very little edge, while less efficient markets (minor leagues, props) may offer exploitable discrepancies.